SODIC AR 16-About
The global real estate industry has traditionally enjoyed thicker skin when it comes to external fluctuations that hit the economy. While the 2008 financial crisis saw this view debunked to varying degrees, the Egyptian real estate industry proved to be one of the most resilient markets globally. This resilience was further solidified in the wake of the political and economic turmoil that followed the 2011 Egyptian revolution. Although the political and economic implications that followed forced real estate developers in Egypt and the MENA region to reassess their previous confidence in remaining impervious to instabilities, it also highlighted the industry’s defensive nature; a pliability that may be attributed to several variables.
Solid Fundamentals
Egypt expects a continued building boom in its real estate market. While economic and political setbacks certainly have encouraged developers to revisit their respective growth strategies and adopt a more innovative approach, certain facets of the Egyptian population have decisively kept the industry afloat as well. As a nation with over 90 million people where approximately 800,000 marriages take place a year, Egypt’s demographics aid in creating a stable demand for real estate development. Additionally, an existing housing gap of c.3 million units as well as solid demand for secondary homes in coastal cities provide ample opportunity.
An Enduring Investment
The upper middle and upper classes of society have showed enduring demand amid the political and economic turmoil that characterised Egypt in the wake of the 2011 revolution and years that followed. In times of economic uncertainty, buyers sought security and investment opportunities in brick and mortar as a primary hedge against inflation. Real estate investment is perceived by consumers as an effective means of capital preservation. Meanwhile, developers have also adopted a strategy of breaking up projects into phases to negate the effects of rising inflation.
As such, the Egyptian real estate market continues to report a surge in demand and developers continue to report top-line growth.
New Rules, New Opportunities
In legislative terms, the introduction of new rules and laws allowing the government to contribute land for new developments against a share of earned revenue have effectively reduced costs for developers during a time of surging land prices. In addition, where private investors owning land plots but lacking in execution capacity had previously felt constrained, the new legislations have paved the way for co-development agreements by enabling them to partner with solid brand equities.
Commercial & Retail Expansion
Investment in office and commercial property has also hiked, having previously stalled as a result of the revolution due to muted demand. Now roughly 20% of projects under development are allocated to office and retail space. The increased allocation is aimed at meeting the rising demand for quality office space as well as a fast-growing retail market.
The limited supply of quality office stock in central Cairo has seen many companies relocate to the new urban communities where the majority of developers operate and where purpose-built office space is becoming increasingly available. At an estimated 920,000 sqm of gross leasable area (GLA) in the office space market available in the greater Cairo area, per-capita supply stands at a mere 0.04 sqm.
Meanwhile, Egypt’s retail market is expected to grow to EGP 1,400 billion by 2018. The majority of this market is present in informal retail space, which represents c.98% of total retail trade in Egypt, reflecting a highly fragmented market with significant opportunities in the more formal and organised retail space. Cairo’s total GLA in the organised retail space is currently estimated at 1.2 million sqm, representing 0.05 sqm per capita, well below regional averages.
An Obelisk for the Egyptian Economy
In Egypt’s diversified economy, the real estate and construction industries contribute notable revenues for the country, making it a strong pillar of the Egyptian economy having contributed some 15% to GDP in FY16. Moreover, the real estate sector directly employs 14% of the Egyptian workforce, where with every EGP 1 billion in spending 10,000 construction jobs are created. The real estate market also acts as a locomotive for over 90 feeder industries including cement, steel, carpentry, and many others.
What the real estate market in Egypt has demonstrated and continues to prove is its promising convalescence amid volatile political and economic climates. The demographics of the nation, coupled with government partnerships with the private real estate sector, and innovative strategic decisions taken by the latter to defend the industry, collectively continue to oil the cogs that keep the market in motion. With robust growth drivers to keep the industry afloat, the future outlook for real estate development in Egypt remains promising.
